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Summary of Enrollment Forecasts for NACS

Summary of the Northwest Allen County Schools Demographic Study

The Board of School Trustees of Northwest Allen County Schools (NACS) commissioned McKibbon Demographics to conduct a demographic study to forecast enrollment trends for NACS.  A report was presented to the Board in June of 2016.  The enrollment forecast was updated in the fall.  The updated enrollment forecast was presented to the Board in November.  To view the full report provided by McKibben Demographics, please contact the NACS district office located at 13119 Coldwater Road in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Background Information

The last elementary school built within NACS was Eel River Elementary School.  Eel River opened during the 2009-2010 school year.  The last middle school built within NACS was Carroll Middle School.  Carroll Middle School opened during the 2004-2005 school year.  The last time additional classroom space was opened and made accessible at Carroll High School was during the 2010-2011 school year.

Enrollment Forecasts

The enrollment forecasts are sensitive to a number of factors that are unpredictable and can influence actual future enrollment.  The economy and availability of jobs are primary factors that can influence actual future enrollment.  However, interest rates, housing availability, sewer and water availability, and many other factors can also affect actual future enrollment.  Based on the information available at the time of creating the enrollment forecasts and the assumptions made based on this available information, an enrollment forecast was prepared.  The initial forecast was presented to the Board in June of 2016.  After updated enrollment figures were submitted in September, the forecast was updated to reflect this updated information.  The table below summarizes the updated enrollment forecast presented to the Board in November of 2016.  For contextual purposes, the table also provides historical data; specifically, enrollment in 2004-05 which corresponds to the year Carroll Middle School opened, enrollment in 2009-10 which corresponds to the year Eel River Elementary School opened, and the current school year and the three previous school years.

 

2004-05

2009-10

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

2021-22

2022-23

2024-25

2025-26

Elementary Enrollment

2750 *

3091 *

3057

3084

3161

3283

3364

3426

3511

3576

3641

3621

3597

3567

Middle School Enrollment

1374

1543

1683

1752

1740

1756

1732

1810

1847

1873

1848

1931

1991

2072

High School Enrollment

1621

1905

2092

2133

2206

2286

2418

2408

2416

2449

2443

2494

2541

2534

Total NACS Enrollment

5745

6539

6832

6969

7107

7325

7514

7644

7774

7898

7932

8046

8129

8173

* The elementary enrollments reported for the 2004-05 and 2009-10 school years are estimates based on the ADM reports submitted to the state.

Additional Considerations

For the 2016-17 school year, Cedar Canyon, Eel River, Huntertown, and Oak View Elementary Schools are at or exceed enrollment capacity.  Hickory Center and Perry Hill Elementary Schools are at or near ideal elementary enrollment capacity.  Each middle school is designed to ideally accommodate fewer than 900 students, but could accommodate up to about 950 students.  The combination of Carroll High School and the Carroll Freshman Center are designed to accommodate up to 2800 students




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